Northsiders have had to bundle up more than usual lately, and the Sun recently consulted an expert to find out why. Staff Writer Anthony Warren recently spoke to Brad Bryant, journeyman forecaster with the National Weather Service in Jackson. Bryant is a graduate of the University of Oklahoma and has worked for the federal agency for seven years.

With all the talk of global warming, why has it been so cold lately? “There’ve been a few factors coming together to make this winter cold for us. Generally, we’ve had a moderate to strong El Nino pattern in place across the Pacific Ocean, which correlates to below-average temperatures in the Southeast.”

What is an El Nino pattern? “El Nino conditions are determined by looking at the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. When the water warms up to certain levels, it matches the criteria to be called an El Nino. The temperature has to be warm for a certain period of time for the pattern to occur. For the Southeast, the pattern helps us to predict the expected wintertime weather.

“Looking at North America this year, the pattern has not produced the effects that we generally expect from an El Nino. Generally, you expect temperatures to be a little below normal, but it’s been even colder than that. From the Mason-Dixon Line south, there has been a fair amount of snow.”

What has been the average low temperature for the Jackson metro area in 2010? “Our average low temperature in January was 31 degrees. So far in February, it’s been 35.1. January was quite a bit below normal for the history of Jackson observations, which began back in the late 1800s. The past January, though, was not in the top 10 in coldest Januaries on record. One was in 1940, when the average low was 21.9 degrees.”



What should Jackson’s January lows be? “They should generally be about 37 degrees. We were almost in the top 10 for January in regard to lows; we had a cold snap at the beginning of the month that ranked in the top five of cold snaps experienced in Central Mississippi in the last 100 years. It wasn’t the coldest, but the length of time the cold weather stuck around and the number of days we had of below freezing weather was much longer than usual.”

You talk about El Nino and the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean. But doesn’t the arctic air come from the north?

“It does. During El Nino conditions, the upper levels of the atmosphere are affected in the Pacific. The upper levels are like a big river of air that flows downstream across North America. The Pacific is the largest body of water on the planet, and there is a high degree of interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean. When that happens, it can control weather patterns across large portions of the globe, especially areas in the Northern Hemisphere.”

With warmer water temperatures near the equator, is that a sign of global warming? “It’s not. It’s actually a cyclical thing. Every few years, the ocean temperatures oscillate between cooler and warmer than normal.”

How long do these patterns last? “Usually, they will last for a year or less. Generally, they’ll be a fall through spring phenomenon.”

What will this weather pattern mean for the summer? “El Ninos peak in the winter and fall apart in late spring, going into the summer months. That may hold to form this year, as sea surface temperatures drop. If you have an El Nino that lasts through the summer, it provides for less tropical activity in the Atlantic. One of the reasons 2009 was such a quiet year in terms of tropical activity was because we were transitioning into an El Nino. Right now, I can’t say it will be a quiet tropical season. Our office doesn’t make those calls.”

How does your office get information to the public? “The weather radio is one of our primary tools. We have a computer that sends out the regular zone forecast and weather warnings over the radio. Those messages are sent across nine transmitters that cover our area. When you see the warnings scroll across the bottom of your TV screen, that’s prompted by a feed that comes from our office.”

What area does the Jackson office cover?

“We cover a territory stretching from the extreme southeastern part of Arkansas, the northeastern part of Louisiana and Central Mississippi from south of Highway 84 to north of Highway 82.”

What is the toughest part of your job? “The toughest part is also the most enjoyable, and that is forecasting the weather and trying to figure out what’s going to happen. The computer models are gradually getting better and you can sometimes have a good idea what conditions will be like a week in advance.

“Sometimes, especially in the winter, weather patterns can turn chaotic, and computer models can have a tough time figuring things out. The general public doesn’t always understand that. We can’t just rely on computer models, it’s people who have to make a decision on whether or not the computer knows what it’s doing.”

In movies like “Twister” and “The Day after Tomorrow,” computer models seem to be dead on. Do movies like that hurt your profession?

“There have been a lot of storm chasing movies that have had poor attempts at capturing the science behind meteorology. It happens to be kind of humorous. I haven’t seen one movie capture the science well enough to show that computer models will give you information that’s infallible. Right now, we’re watching a potential for snow all across Mississippi. There are a litany of models we have access to, and a majority show a potential for snow. But there are some that don’t. You can’t get far enough out in time to discount the models that don’t know yet. There is always some uncertainty in weather.”

So I guess the groundhog is still the safest bet. “(Laughs) The groundhog’s been right on several occasions, but Idon’t think there’s much science to his predictions.”