Mississippi is woefully unprepared for the Omicron tidal wave headed our way. We hear from Prime Minister Boris Johnson that in his country Omicron “is spreading at a phenomenal rate, something that we’ve never seen before—it’s doubling every two to three days in infections” (CNN Dec.13). What Johnson says is relevant to us here in Mississippi because one can see from the charts of covid infections in Mississippi versus the UK that Mississippi’s past surges have followed UK surges by about a month. (Compare the UK’s Fall 2020 surge starting October 3, 2020, with Mississippi’s starting a month later about November 5, 2020; and the UK’s 2021 summer surge starting June 5, 2021, with Mississippi’s about July 5). The UK’s exponential rise in Omicron cases started about December 1. Will an Omicron surge therefore start in Mississippi soon after the new year? I am just a layman, for sure, but as a betting man, that’s my bet.
Whenever it is that Omicron appears here in a big way, for sure we know only 55% of Mississippians have received at least one dose of the covid vaccine; only 48% of us are fully vaccinated by two vaccines jabs; and only 24% of us have received the booster (NYT).
The inverse of those numbers is more startling: 45% of Mississippians are unvaccinated; 52% have not had a second dose; and 76% have not had a third dose. That is all bad news for Mississippians. As Boris Johnson also states: “I’m afraid it is now clear that two doses of the vaccine are simply not enough to give the level of protection we all need” (CNN Dec.13). Johnson notes data showing that the third dose is necessary in the face of Omicron’s evasions to restore the level of vaccine effectiveness and to avoid breakthrough infections.
We all know it takes four weeks for an unvaccinated person to get to the second dose, and some months after that for a third dose. Well, one can see the problem. What Johnson told the Brits is surely applicable to Mississippians: “No one should be in any doubt: there is a tidal wave of Omicron coming.” Moreover, Omicron multiplies within the outer airways 70 times faster than delta (Reuters Dec.15). Yet, the nonchalance that pervades our elected officials is palpable. Sure, Dr. Dobbs is speaking out. However, among the political class it may take a non-vacillating, speaking out of one-side-of-the-mouth, style of political leadership to get the many unvaccinated or under vaccinated Mississippians to respond within time for public health.
It is true many Mississippians infected by Omicron could experience milder symptoms than one would expect from Delta, maybe the equivalent of a cold. That will not be true for everyone. The effect of the sheer number of infections on our hospitals could be significant. Boris Johnson, citing the South African experience, noted for his country, “the inevitable increase in hospitalizations, up by 10% nationally, week on week, and up almost a third in London,” (CNBC Dec.16).
Moreover, real disruption could follow from rampant covid infections. As professor Tim Spector, a scientist studying the effects of Omicron in the UK, tells it: “As our latest data shows, Omicron symptoms are predominantly cold symptoms, runny nose, headache, sore throat and sneezing, so people should stay at home as it might well be covid” (CNBC Dec.16). The danger is many people will fail to stay at home, thinking they have only a cold, only to spread covid to the more vulnerable. Others, bothering to getting a rapid test, will be forced by our most transmissible variant ever to stay at home for the 10 days it takes for the all-clear. Moreover, since Omicron was declared a Variant of Concern only at Thanksgiving, we cannot yet know the full health risks Omicron poses.
One final point. I have read in these pages I have “chosen to continue” an “endless war on informed consent.” Rest assured, I am--I have always been--a firm advocate of informed consent. For example, I noted last June the case of the nurse at Houston Methodist Hospital who lost her job because she cared so little for the safety of patients, she refused vaccination. As U.S. District Judge Lynn Hughes wrote when rejecting her claim of coercion, she had the choice of vaccination, and “if she refuses, she simply needs to work somewhere else.” As the judge said, employment requirements for the safety of all are “all part of the bargain” for any job.
Moreover, I know real lack of informed consent when I see it. Like the unvaccinated workman who entered my home during last summer’s surge without providing informed consent that even though he knew he had been exposed to covid by an infected parent, he nonetheless was choosing for us not to keep his mask on and to expose us all to covid—promptly giving a family member a break through infection with high fevers that went on for days, and myself a 10-day forced suspension from the outside world. Where, may I ask, was the informed consent to all that?
Indeed, in the face of Omicron, I hereby provide notice: I require informed consent from any unvaccinated persons before approaching within 10 feet of me within an enclosed space.
When it comes to informed consent, I am a true believer.
Robert P. Wise is a Northsider.
