The Mississippi incumbent protection act worked like a charm. The bill authored by Rep. Jody Steverson of Ripley and adopted in 2021 moved the qualifying date for most state, district, and county elections to Feb. 1.
“Early filing deadlines benefit incumbents; so do brief filing seasons,” stated the Bigger Pie Forum in its 2021 article entitled "Incumbent Protection Proposal Making Its Way Through MS Legislature."
“Since no candidate is allowed to file before January 1, the new February 1 deadline will only allow one month for candidates to file. It is likely that many who would consider running for office would not make that decision so early in the year.”
Consider the 2023 statewide elections. All eight incumbents are seeking reelection – Tate Reeves for Governor, Delbert Hosemann for Lt. Governor, Lynn Fitch for Attorney General, Michael Watson for Secretary of State, David McRae for Treasurer, Shad White for Auditor, Mike Chaney for Insurance Commissioner, and Andy Gipson for Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce. There are a number of largely unknown candidates on the ballots but only Reeves and Hosemann attracted well-known, serious opponents.
Hosemann’s race comes up first. He is being challenged in the August Republican Primary by State Sen. Chris McDaniel.
Reeves’ serious race will be in the November General Election. Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley will be his challenger. Both will have to escape August primaries but are expected to do so handily.
McDaniel will try to rekindle the enthusiasm he generated in his fiery but unsuccessful 2014 challenge to Sen. Thad Cochran when he got 49% of the vote. That enthusiasm had fizzled out by 2018 when he challenged Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and got only 16% of the vote. Perhaps the surprise showing of Michael Cassidy in the low turnout first primary against Rep. Michael Guest last year sparked his hopes. Of course, Guest overwhelmed Cassidy in the runoff. With two other candidates in the primary, a tight race could result in a runoff this time. The other two candidates are Shane Quick, who drew 14% of the vote four years ago, and Tiffany Longino, a rare black Republican.
Presley has won Democratic primaries and held off GOP challengers in the northern district every four years since 2007 when he was elected Northern District Public Service Commissioner. Winning a statewide race will be harder. He is not as well known in the central and southern districts. And the weak Democratic Party slate at the top of the ticket will make it hard to generate a strong turnout of the party base. One veteran politician said Presley's only hope is that Reeves gets indicted in the TANF scandal.
If Presley loses, this may well be the last hurrah for a moderate Democrat in statewide elections. The party's stable for such candidates looks empty.
“All things are possible for one who believes” – Mark 9:23.
Crawford is a syndicated columnist from Jackson.
