“Go West, young man.” This famous maxim, often attributed to New York Tribune editor Horace Greeley (rightly or wrongly), urged young men in the latter half of the 19th century to flee the stultified East for the new opportunities of the West, where they could succeed or fail on their own merits. Thousands upon thousands of settlers did just that, striking out on the Oregon or Santa Fe Trails where they hoped to begin new lives west of the Rockies.
The Eastern exodus continues today. For the decade ending 2020 the five states with the largest population decrease (or slowest population growth) on a percentage basis are West Virginia, Illinois, Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island. (Mississippi’s growth is triple that of New York’s for the same time period.)
While the West has continued to grow, the South has emerged as favored landing spot for families on the move. Texas and Florida were the second and third fastest growing states of the past decade (behind Utah), with South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee all in the top 20. No Northeastern states are in the top 20. (Aside: Tom Brady is one of the latest to trade an Eastern address for a Southern one.)
This migration is occurring for multiple reasons, one of which is that, since time immemorial, humans seek out freedom and opportunity wherever they may lie. As Greeley added in 1872 shortly before his death (and after a failed Presidential run against Ulysses Grant), “I hold that tens of thousands, who are now barely holding on at the East, might thus place themselves on the high road to competence and ultimate independence at the West.”
With this in mind, I was curious about the following question: I wonder what a U.S. map showing which states were reopening their economies and which were not, would look like? So I checked. Sure enough, as of May 1, no states east of the Mississippi River and north of Tennessee (with the sole exception of Maine) had started opening their economies back up. On the other hand, seven of the 11 states between Texas on the west and North Carolina on the east had begun reopening their economies. (This is not to imply that the Northeastern and Midwestern states should be doing anything differently. It is simply an objective statement of fact.)
What is interesting, in light of the last decade’s migration, however, is that none of the Pacific coast states in the mainland have reopened either. While they may have their reasons, that might present opportunities for a state like Mississippi.
We certainly have our fair share of challenges, which is beyond the scope of this article, but Mississippi also has some strategic advantages. First and foremost is latitude. By good fortune based solely on geography, Mississippi has a temperate climate. The stunningly beautiful spring we have been having is exhibit 1. (Aside #2: Grenada is on almost the exact same latitude as Augusta; the Masters would have been gorgeous this year.) No matter what any Northeastern or Midwestern state does, they will never have our latitude or climate.
The second competitive advantage is cost of living. Mississippi has the lowest cost of living in the entire US. As Easterners flee for warmer climes, they will look for states where their dollars go far, and Mississippi wins that battle, hands down against the West Coast but also against the rest of the country.
While the first two advantages are outside our control, one that is very much in our control is honoring individual liberties, removing barriers to opportunities, and respecting everyone’s right to work. Americans whose livelihoods have been destroyed and whose jobs have been lost will be looking to see where the new opportunities emerge, and we need to be on the right side of this trend. Mississippi is a naturally hospitable state. Our residents are by and large kind and welcoming to strangers. Our policymakers need to reinforce that message, the message that we are removing impediments to success for those who live here now and who may come in the future.
Although Mississippi’s growth rate has outpaced New York’s over the past decade, our population relative to the rest of the U.S. has fallen, which is why we’ve lost congressional representation. Ten years ago, roughly 200,000 more people lived in Mississippi than in Utah. Today, after an explosive decade of growth for Utah, roughly 300,000 more people live in Utah than Mississippi. In every crisis there is opportunity, and the crisis of how state and federal governments have responded to COVID-19 (which is truly the crisis and not the disease itself) may have created an opportunity for Mississippi, one that may not come around again (at least I hope it doesn’t, not in this form). The Easterners will end up somewhere. We need to get this right.
Go South, young man.
Kelley Williams Jr. is a Northsider.
